ABOUT US: THE FANTASY FITTIE DOCTRINE
At Fantasy Fittie, we understand the passion that drives every FPL manager. It’s a game of thrilling highs and gut-wrenching lows. We’re here to help you navigate that emotional rollercoaster, not by replacing your passion, but by equipping it with unparalleled intelligence.
We bring calculation to your intuition, and the cold, hard logic of data to your fervent support. Our mission is to provide every serious FPL manager with a measurable, statistical advantage—access to insights and tools they’ve never had before. We don’t just offer tips; we offer a fundamentally superior way to master the game.
This is the doctrine that powers your success.
1: The Foundation of Integrity: Our Data Detective Mandate
Every accurate prediction begins with clean, reliable data. The official FPL game data can be a minefield, often containing stale or misleading information, including “ghost players” who have left the league. Blindly trusting such data is a recipe for disaster.
Our process begins with our Data Detective Mandate. We rigorously clean, verify, and purify our datasets, employing advanced filters to eliminate any inaccuracies. We ensure our predictions are built on a foundation of verified truth, free from the statistical noise that pollutes lesser models.
2: The Strategic Imperative: Differentiating Prediction & Transfers
Through extensive empirical research, including our “Coliseum” backtests, we made a crucial discovery: the optimal strategies for predicting player points and for recommending transfers are fundamentally different. Attempting to use a single metric for both decisions leads to suboptimal results.
Our intelligence system is built to reflect this critical distinction, providing two distinct, specialized metrics, each empirically optimized for its specific purpose.
This empirically proven dual strategy is a cornerstone of our advantage, ensuring you deploy the right analytical tool for the right FPL decision.
Potential Points (For Captaincy & Bench Decisions):
Purpose: This is our most accurate, single-point forecast of the score a player will achieve, conditioned on them playing a significant number of minutes. It is a pure measure of raw, explosive power, essential for Captaincy and Start/Bench decisions.
Application: Use this metric to determine: “Of the players I currently own, who is most likely to deliver the highest score this gameweek?” This metric is not optimized for identifying transfer targets.
Fittie Forecast (For Transfer Recommendations):
Purpose: Our “Smart Gambler” model produces the Fittie Forecast—a rigorously tested Transfer Decision Index. This metric is not a points prediction. Its sole purpose is to identify the most intelligent, high-momentum transfer target for the upcoming gameweek, combining immediate form and underlying value.
Application: Our research proved that for transfer decisions in FPL’s dynamic market, a strategy that intelligently prioritizes short-term momentum and value is statistically superior. Use this metric to answer: “Which player should I transfer in for the most immediate impact?”
3. Multi-Dimensional Intelligence: Supporting Metrics
To provide a complete intelligence dossier, our specialized prediction engines are supported by additional, crucial metrics:
Probability of Starting
A nuanced percentage chance that a player will be in the starting XI. This is your critical risk assessment tool. A magnificent Potential Points score is meaningless if the player remains on the bench.
Predicted Floor & Ceiling
These provide sane, logical boundaries for a player’s likely performance range. The Floor (25th percentile) is their pessimistic but reliable score; the Ceiling (75th percentile) is their ambitious, explosive haul potential.
Together, these metrics provide a complete, holistic, and multi-faceted understanding of every player’s profile.
4. Deciphering Player Character: Volatility and Reliability
Beyond raw potential and availability, understanding a player’s FPL character is crucial for strategic planning. Our models provide:
Volatility Score
A direct, numerical measure of a player’s inner chaos, calculated as the difference between their Predicted Ceiling and Predicted Floor. A higher score indicates an unpredictable asset who can deliver huge hauls or frustrating blanks.
Reliability Index
Our proprietary percentage score, reflecting a player’s historical consistency when delivering returns once in a “Hot” state. This separates the truly dependable assets from the streaky punts.
These metrics allow you to profile players with precision, ensuring you build a balanced squad ready for any gameweek challenge.
5. The Unending Pursuit: Mastering FPL’s Chaos
The Premier League is a dynamic, complex system. Our work is never truly finished. We are in a constant state of evolution, with dedicated research ongoing to push the boundaries of FPL prediction.
Our data scientists continuously explore new frontiers in understanding the inherent “chaos” of the game. From the discovery of our dual strategy for transfers and captaincy, to developing increasingly precise models for predicting critical swings in player performance—identifying elusive massive hauls, foreseeing unexpected blanks, and pinpointing moments of crucial momentum change—our commitment is to continually refine our intelligence, ensuring you always have the most advanced tools at your disposal.
6. Our Commitment: The Unfair Advantage
Fantasy Fittie is dedicated to providing you with the most advanced, rigorously tested, and transparent FPL intelligence on the market. We don’t just predict; we analyze, verify, and explain. Our doctrine is built on scientific rigor and a relentless pursuit of the truth behind the numbers.
Join us, and leverage the power of truly intelligent analysis.